Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
